Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales
Authors:Lange, StefanVolkholz, JanGeiger, TobiasZhao, FangVega, IliusiVeldkamp, TedReyer, Christopher P. O.Warszawski, LilaHuber, VeronikaJaegermeyr, JonasSchewe, JacobBresch, David N.Buechner, MatthiasChang, JinfengCiais, PhilippeDury, MarieEmanuel, KerryFolberth, ChristianGerten, DieterGosling, Simon N.Grillakis, ManolisHanasaki, NaotaHenrot, Alexandra-JaneHickler, ThomasHonda, YasushiIto, AkihikoKhabarov, NikolayKoutroulis, AristeidisLiu, WenfengMueller, ChristophNishina, KazuyaOstberg, SebastianMueller Schmied, HannesSeneviratne, Sonia I.Stacke, TobiasSteinkamp, JoergThiery, WimWada, YoshihideWillner, SvenYang, HongYoshikawa, MinoruYue, ChaoFrieler, Katja
Source:EARTHS FUTURE
Volume:8
Published:2020
Document Type:Article
Abstract:The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2 degrees C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross-category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia. Plain Language Summary Global warming changes the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of extreme events. We analyze computer simulations of river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves under past, present-day, and potential future climate conditions. Our results show that global warming increases the number of people around the world that are affected by these events each year, both for all event types combined and each type individually. Changes in the chance of being affected by extreme events are unevenly distributed in space. Particularly large increases are simulated for tropical and subtropical regions.
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Reprint Address:Lange, S; Frieler, K (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.; Lange, S; Frieler, K (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany.
Addresses:[Lange, Stefan; Volkholz, Jan; Geiger, Tobias; Vega, Iliusi; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Warszawski, Lila; Jaegermeyr, Jonas; Schewe, Jacob; Buechner, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Mueller, Christoph; Ostberg, Sebastian; Willner, Sven; Frieler, Katja] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany. [Lange, Stefan; Volkholz, Jan; Geiger, Tobias; Vega, Iliusi; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Warszawski, Lila; Jaegermeyr, Jonas; Schewe, Jacob; Buechner, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Mueller, Christoph; Ostberg, Sebastian; Willner, Sven; Frieler, Katja] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany. [Geiger, Tobias] Deutsch Wetterdienst DWD, Climate & Environm Consultancy, Stahnsdorf, Germany. [Zhao, Fang] East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China. [Veldkamp, Ted] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. [Veldkamp, Ted; Chang, Jinfeng; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Wada, Yoshihide] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. [Huber, Veronika] Univ Pablo de Olavide, Dept Phys Chem & Nat Syst, Seville, Spain. [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] Univ Chicago, Dept Comp Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. [Bresch, David N.] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Decis, Zurich, Switzerland. [Bresch, David N.] Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland. [Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Liu, Wenfeng; Yue, Chao] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif Sur Yvette, France. [Dury, Marie; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane] Univ Liege, Unit Modeling Climate & Biogeochem Cycles, Liege, Belgium. [Emanuel, Kerry] MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. [Gerten, Dieter] Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, Berlin, Germany. [Gosling, Simon N.] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham, England. [Grillakis, Manolis] Inst Mediterranean Studies, Lab Geophys Remote Sensing & Archaeoenvironm, Rethimnon, Greece. [Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. [Hickler, Thomas; Mueller Schmied, Hannes] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany. [Hickler, Thomas; Mueller Schmied, Hannes; Steinkamp, Joerg] Senckenberg Leibniz Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr S, Frankfurt, Germany. [Honda, Yasushi] Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. [Koutroulis, Aristeidis] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Environm Engn, Khania, Greece. [Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong] Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol Eawag, Dubendorf, Switzerland. [Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Thiery, Wim] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland. [Stacke, Tobias] Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. [Steinkamp, Joerg] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Zentrum Datenverarbeitung, Mainz, Germany. [Thiery, Wim] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium. [Yang, Hong] Univ Basel, Dept Environm Sci, MUG, Basel, Switzerland. [Yoshikawa, Minoru] Mizuho Informat & Res Inst Inc, Tokyo, Japan. [Yue, Chao] Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.
E-mail Addresses:slange@pik-potsdam.de; katja.frieler@pik-potsdam.de