Rising Seas, Rising Inequity? Communities at Risk in the San Francisco Bay Area and Implications for Adaptation Policy
Authors:Bick, I. Avery Santiago Tate, Adrian F. Serafin, Katherine A. Miltenberger, Alex Anyansi, Ifeoma Evans, Max Ortolano, Leonard Ouyang, Derek Suckale, Jenny
Volume:9
Published:2021
Document Type:Article
Abstract:Increasing coastal flooding threatens urban centers worldwide. Projections of physical damages to structures and their contents can characterize the monetary scale of risk, but they lack relevant socioeconomic context. The impact of coastal flooding on communities hinges not only on the cost, but on the ability of households to pay for the damages. Here, we repurpose probabilistic risk assessment to analyze the monetary and social risk associated with coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area for 2020-2060. We show that future coastal flooding could financially ruin a substantial number of households by burdening them with flood damage costs that exceed discretionary household income. We quantify these impacts at the census block group scale by computing the percentage of households without discretionary income, before and after coastal flooding costs. We find that for several coastal communities in San Mateo County more than 50% of households will be facing financial instability, highlighting the need for immediate policy interventions that target existing, socially produced risk rather than waiting for potentially elusive certainty in sea level rise projections. We emphasize that the percentage of financially unstable households is particularly high in racially diverse and historically disadvantaged communities, highlighting the connection between financial instability and inequity. While our estimates are specific to the San Francisco Bay Area, our granular, household-level perspective is transferable to other urban centers and can help identify the specific challenges that different communities face and inform appropriate adaptation interventions.
Author Information
Corresponding Author:Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.; Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Dept Geophys, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.; Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Inst Computat & Math Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
Reprint Address:Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.; Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Dept Geophys, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.; Suckale, J (通讯作者)，Stanford Univ, Inst Computat & Math Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
Addresses:[Bick, I. Avery; Evans, Max; Ortolano, Leonard; Ouyang, Derek; Suckale, Jenny] Stanford Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; [Bick, I. Avery; Santiago Tate, Adrian F.; Serafin, Katherine A.; Miltenberger, Alex; Ouyang, Derek; Suckale, Jenny] Stanford Univ, Dept Geophys, Stanford, CA 94305 USA; [Serafin, Katherine A.] Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL USA; [Anyansi, Ifeoma; Suckale, Jenny] Stanford Univ, Inst Computat & Math Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
E-mail Addresses:jsuckale@stanford.edu