Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels
Authors:Tebaldi, Claudia Ranasinghe, Roshanka Vousdoukas, Michalis Rasmussen, D. J. Vega-Westhoff, Ben Kirezci, Ebru Kopp, Robert E. Sriver, Ryan Mentaschi, Lorenzo
Volume:11
DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1
Published:2021
Document Type:Article
Abstract:The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 degrees C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world's coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 similar to 50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 degrees C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.
Author Information
Corresponding Author:Tebaldi, C (通讯作者)，Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
Reprint Address:Tebaldi, C (通讯作者)，Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
Addresses:[Tebaldi, Claudia] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; [Ranasinghe, Roshanka] IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Dept Coastal & Urban Risk & Resilience, Delft, Netherlands; [Ranasinghe, Roshanka] Deltares, Harbour Coastal & Offshore Engn, Delft, Netherlands; [Ranasinghe, Roshanka] Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, Water Engn & Management, Enschede, Netherlands; [Vousdoukas, Michalis; Mentaschi, Lorenzo] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, Ispra, Italy; [Rasmussen, D. J.] Princeton Univ, Princeton Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; [Vega-Westhoff, Ben; Sriver, Ryan] Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, 105 S Gregory Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; [Kirezci, Ebru] Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Victoria, Australia; [Kopp, Robert E.] Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA; [Kopp, Robert E.] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA; [Mentaschi, Lorenzo] Univ Bologna, Dept Phys & Astron Augusto Righi, Bologna, Italy
E-mail Addresses:claudia.tebaldi@pnnl.gov