Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors
Authors:Harrison, P. A. Dunford, R. Savin, C. Rounsevell, M. D. A. Holman, I. P. Kebede, A. S. Stuch, B.
Volume:128
Published:2015
Document Type:Article
Abstract:Understanding cross-sectoral impacts is important in developing appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change, since such insight builds the capacity of decision-makers to understand the full extent of climate change vulnerability, rather than viewing single sectors in isolation. A regional integrated assessment model that captures interactions between six sectors (agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) was used to investigate impacts resulting from a wide range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Results show that Europe will be significantly influenced by these possible future changes with between 79 and 91 % of indicator-scenario combinations found to be statistically significantly different from the baseline. Urban development increases in most scenarios across Europe due to increases in population and sometimes GDP. This has an indirect influence on the number of people affected by a 1 in 100 year flood which increases in western and northern Europe. Changes in other land uses (intensive farming, extensive farming, forests and unmanaged land) vary depending on the scenario, but food production generally increases across Europe at the expense of forest area and unmanaged land to satisfy increasing food demand. Biodiversity vulnerability and water exploitation both increase in southern and Eastern Europe due to direct effects from climate and indirect effects from changes in land use and irrigation water use. The results highlight the importance of considering non-climatic pressures and cross-sectoral interactions to fully capture climate change impacts at the regional scale.
Author Information
Corresponding Author:Harrison, PA (通讯作者)，Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England.
Reprint Address:Harrison, PA (通讯作者)，Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England.
Addresses:[Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, R.] Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; [Savin, C.] Tiamasg Fdn, Bucharest 010963, Romania; [Rounsevell, M. D. A.] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland; [Holman, I. P.] Cranfield Univ, Cranfield Water Sci Inst, Bedford MK43 0AL, England; [Kebede, A. S.] Univ Southampton, Fac Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England; [Stuch, B.] Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34125 Kassel, Germany
E-mail Addresses:paula.harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk