Investigating the impact of sea surface temperature on the development of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone Ianos in 2020
Authors:Varlas, George Pytharoulis, Ioannis Steeneveld, Gert-Jan Katsafados, Petros Papadopoulos, Anastasios
Volume:291
DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106827
Published:2023
Document Type:Article
Abstract:This study aims to unravel and quantify the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on the formation, intensity, structure and track of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (medicane) Ianos occurred on 15-20 September 2020 at the central Mediterranean. This study, thus, demonstrates how Ianos would be in past and future climate conditions, assuming that SST changes over the years, but preserving the same atmospheric conditions. To investigate the SST impact, the medicane was simulated using the Advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The numerical experiments were initialized either with SST analysis data (control experi-ment) or applying a uniform decrease and increase to SST analysis by 1 degrees C and 2 degrees C (four sensitivity experi-ments). In this way, the past and future climatic SSTs were concisely approximated. Analysis of various thermodynamic parameters in combination with phase space diagrams, revealing the thermal symmetry and the warm core structure of the cyclone, indicated that Ianos was very sensitive on SST. Thus, SST changes especially by & PLUSMN;2 degrees C had significant impact on its intensity, changing the period of tropical features while also determining the track and the landfall location. Overall, the average enthalpy flux (i.e., the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes) in Ianos changed by approximately-39% and + 50% when SST changed by-2 degrees C and + 2 degrees C, respectively. This, in turn, affected the characteristics of Ianos causing changes for example in the average wind speed (approximately-15% and + 15%) and the average precipitation (approximately-56% and + 44%). This study quantifies the impacts of SST on Ianos medicane that have important research and socioeconomic impli-cations with a view to a changing future. Therefore, it could support scientists, decision-makers and civil pro-tection in the adaptation to extreme weather phenomena by building climate resilience and sustainability.
Author Information
Corresponding Author:Varlas, G (corresponding author), Inst Marine Biol Resources & Inland Waters, Hellen Ctr Marine Res, 46-7 km Athens-Sounio Ave, Anavissos 19013, Greece.
Reprint Address:Varlas, G (corresponding author), Inst Marine Biol Resources & Inland Waters, Hellen Ctr Marine Res, 46-7 km Athens-Sounio Ave, Anavissos 19013, Greece.
Addresses:[Varlas, George; Papadopoulos, Anastasios] Inst Marine Biol Resources & Inland Waters, Hellen Ctr Marine Res, 46-7 km Athens-Sounio Ave, Anavissos 19013, Greece; [Pytharoulis, Ioannis] Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Geol, Dept Meteorol & Climatol, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece; [Steeneveld, Gert-Jan] Wageningen Univ, Meteorol & Air Qual Sect, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; [Katsafados, Petros] Harokopio Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens 17671, Greece
E-mail Addresses:gvarlas@hcmr.gr