Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Authors:Hansen, CarlyShiva, Javad ShafieiMcDonald, SpencerNabors, April

Source:JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION

Volume:55

DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.12784

Published:2019

Document Type:Article

Abstract:Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.

Author Information

Corresponding Author:

Reprint Address:Hansen, C (corresponding author), Univ Utah, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA.

Addresses:[Hansen, Carly] Univ Utah, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA. [Shiva, Javad Shafiei] Syracuse Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. [McDonald, Spencer] Brigham Young Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Provo, UT 84602 USA. [Nabors, April] Univ Alabama Birmingham, Dept Civil Engn, Birmingham, AL USA.

E-mail Addresses:carly.hansen@utah.edu

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